Province unveils first flood forecast

RECORD PHOTO BY AUSTIN GRABISH

 The Red River Floodway could be utilized later this year. 

By Austin Grabish, the Selkirk Record

The province released its first flood forecast of the year last Friday, but it’s still too early to predict the likelihood of spring flooding in Manitoba.

But one thing is for certain; major lakes across the province are “well-above” normal levels for this time of year, and pose an above normal threat of flooding, even under normal weather conditions.

And a significant precipitation event could change the flood outlook significantly.

The potential for spring run-off is below normal in the Red and Pembina river basins, the Roseau River and the Interlake region.

Soil moisture conditions throughout the Interlake are near normal.

Winter precipitation is below normal to well below normal throughout the Interlake region.

There is a chance of localized flooding due to ice jams or snow blockages in drains, ditches and small streams once the weather warms up.

The province said the possibility of flooding from ice jams cannot be ruled out, and the degree of potential major ice jams is difficult to predict.

But on most major rivers, ice thickness is above normal for this time of the year, due to a lack of sufficient snow cover.

Ice cutters and Amphibex icebreakers will be cutting their way through the North Red, Assiniboine, Icelandic, Brokenhead and Fisher rivers as well as the Portage Diversion to reduce the potential of ice jams.

A real challenge for crews this year is the thickness of the ice.

On the Red River north of Selkirk in some areas the ice is as thick as 30 inches.

“We’re encountering some pretty thick ice right now,” said Darrell Kupchik, the director of operations for North Red Waterway Maintenance.

Another challenge for crews are the frigid nighttime temperatures that have hit Manitoba in the last few weeks.

When temperatures neared -50 C on a night two week ago, problems with the Amphibex machines began, and caused the ice-breaking project to be delayed by one day.

“It has been a challenge for us again this year,” Kupchik said.

But despite the temperatures two crews continue to break the ice on the river.

Three Amphibex machines are working north of Selkirk, and Kupchik said they are now one kilometre ahead of schedule.

In total 15.5 kilometres of ice has been cut, a press release from the province said.

The chances of minor localized flooding due to snow blockages in drains, ditches and small streams during the early part of the run-off period will depend on the nature of the spring breakup, and rate of melt.

A second flood forecast is slated to be released later this month, and should provide a more accurate picture of the spring flood potential.

-- First published in the Selkirk Record print edition March 5, 2015 p.19